As we move deeper into the first quarter of 2026, many leaders are still describing a gap between what the indicators suggest and what day-to-day operations feel like. Last month we described this as the “windchill economy”, conditions that look steady on the surface yet feel tougher on the ground. This month, that windchill is being amplified by two forces arriving at the same time: a sharp oil price surge and ongoing uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.
This month’s update discusses the themes shaping how organizations hire, lead, and support their people right now.
The months ahead will reward organizations that stay grounded, communicate clearly, and invest thoughtfully in their people. With energy volatility raising costs and trade uncertainty complicating planning, HR’s role becomes even more central: scenario-based workforce planning, disciplined hiring tied to demand, strong internal mobility, and leadership communication that reduces uncertainty fatigue. Whether the priority is navigating economic turbulence, competing for talent, meeting new hiring compliance requirements, or supporting those moving on to their next chapter, leadership matters more than ever.
Energy shock, trade uncertainty, and what this means for leaders
Oil prices have spiked to levels not seen since mid-2022, with intraday moves reported near $119 per barrel, driven by fears of supply disruption and shipping risk tied to the expanding conflict involving Iran. Even when this kind of surge proves temporarily, it tends to move quickly into operating costs: freight, logistics, utilities, and many industrial inputs. For employees, higher fuel costs are felt immediately, which can shift sentiment and increase financial stress even before broader inflation measures fully reflect the change.
At the same time, tariff direction remains unclear and the Bank of Canada continues to describe the environment as one where elevated U.S. tariffs and the unpredictability of future trade arrangements are disrupting the Canadian economy, with growth expected to remain modest while inflation stays close to target. Export Development Canada similarly frames tariff and trade policy uncertainty as a lingering structural issue for 2026, not a short-lived headline. For leaders, this is a moment where steadiness matters more than prediction.
Disciplined planning is the most effective leadership response. Rather than betting on improvement or decline, leaders benefit from preparing for multiple scenarios and acting with clarity and flexibility. Ahria’s 2026 outlook guidance captures this approach: expect uneven growth, build flexibility, cross‑train teams, and tie hiring decisions to real demand – especially in tariff‑exposed supply chains.
Ahria’s leadership development programs help leaders build confidence and capability in uncertain conditions through practical, evidence‑based support. If your leaders could benefit from this kind of structure, we would be glad to help. Contact Kristy McQueen, Senior Director, Talent Development at [email protected].
Planning gets harder when policy is unclear and costs are moving
Trade uncertainty functions like a hidden tax on organizational planning. When tariff rules and trade arrangements are unpredictable, organizations hesitate: orders get delayed, expansion plans pause, and workforce decisions slow down. The Bank of Canada notes that uncertainty about trade policy is weakening demand for Canadian exports and prompting some businesses to postpone expansion, which hampers the economy’s ability to grow. EDC points to an upcoming review of the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement and rising political pressure as factors that can amplify volatility as businesses try to anticipate outcomes.
Layer on a sudden energy spike and the result is a double squeeze: costs rise while visibility drops. This is where organizations can get into “stop-start” decision cycles, pausing hiring, then rushing, then pausing again. In previous HR Market Updates, we discussed the tariff shock narrative and how quickly conditions can swing when activity is front-loaded and then unwinds through inventories and trade flows, creating uneven quarters for staffing and planning. In the short term, HR adds value by helping leaders translate uncertainty into scenarios: base, downside, and upside workforce plans with clear triggers tied to demand indicators rather than calendar assumptions.
Labour market reality: the market looks softer on paper but stays tight where it counts
Although the labour market can appear to loosen in the aggregate, employers continue to tell us that recruitment remains intensely competitive for pivotal roles and that strong candidates are more selective. This is the practical reality of a fragmented market: some sectors are strained while others continue to compete for scarce capability. In this kind of environment, retention and engagement are directly tied to organizational stability. Losing key talent during uneven hiring cycles creates real operational risk, especially when engagement is fragile and workloads are shifting.
Leaders should stay close to their teams, reinforce clarity of expectations, and invest in a work environment where people feel valued and connected. Strong internal mobility, active coaching, and focused capability building reduce dependence on an external market that can tighten quickly when confidence returns or when specific skills become urgent. If your organization needs to strengthen engagement, elevate retention, or sharpen recruitment success, contact Kelly Gillis, COO at [email protected].
Talent management in the short term: compliance, capability, and care
Ontario’s transparency rules are now live and they reshape how organizations advertise roles and communicate with candidates. Requirements such as salary ranges, AI disclosure, vacancy status, removal of Canadian experience requirements, and timelines for notifying interviewed candidates mean compliance risk is real, and the cost of getting it wrong includes reputational damage and a weakened employer brand. In a market where confidence is already brittle, consistency and clarity in hiring processes become part of retention strategy, not just compliance. If your organization needs help navigating these requirements, contact Sharon Bunce, Vice President at [email protected].
At the same time, the energy and trade environment reinforces a talent management priority: workforce flexibility is no longer optional. Cross-training and targeted upskilling are practical resilience levers when demand, costs, and supply chains move quickly. Finally, in periods of uneven sectoral shifts, career transition support matters more, not less. Even strong candidates can struggle to position their experience and focus their search when hiring is selective and confidence is mixed. A structured program protects reputation, supports wellbeing, and helps people land well, which is a meaningful signal of care in uncertain times.
March Break, a needed pause in a demanding season
With March Break approaching for many families, it is a timely reminder that recovery is a leadership strategy, not a perk. In a quarter where work can feel heavier than the headlines, a short pause can restore energy, perspective, and patience. For organizations, this week is also an opportunity to model healthy boundaries. Encourage teams to plan coverage early, simplify priorities, and be explicit about what can wait. When leaders protect space for rest and set clear expectations, people return more focused, more resilient, and more able to handle change with steadiness.
